Analysis on the economic operation of the hottest

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Economic operation analysis of the machinery industry: promote upgrading with the hand of the market

economic operation analysis of the machinery industry: promote upgrading with the hand of the market

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the basic characteristics of the current economic operation of the machinery industry are slow recovery, moderate growth and stable development. The main difficulties are still weak demand, overcapacity and rising costs. The highlights are the cooling of extension expansion, the increasing temperature of innovation The market forces transformation. Looking forward to the second half of the year, it is not expected to rise sharply, nor

the basic characteristics of the current economic operation of the machinery industry are "slow recovery, moderate growth and stable development". The main difficulties are still weak demand, overcapacity and rising costs. The highlights are the cooling of extension expansion, the rising temperature of innovation and the forced transformation of the market. Looking forward to the second half of the year, it is expected that there will be neither a sharp rise nor a sharp fall, and the keynote will remain stable

it is suggested that the government should not force the speed with short-term stimulus policies, but should strengthen the regulation of market competition and promote the survival of the fittest; At the same time, enterprises should use domestic demand resources to cultivate high-end independent brands

private enterprises have the largest contribution rate to the recovery.

from the perspective of growth rate changes, they have rebounded in the near future compared with the previous year. Among them, private enterprises contributed the most to the recovery

in terms of profits, the growth rate was significantly higher than that of the previous year, but it mainly depended on the automotive industry. It is expected that the profits of the automotive industry may not continue to grow at a high rate in the future, but the profit growth of the machinery industry other than automobiles is expected to rebound moderately. It is worth noting that the profit margin of main business income has decreased over the previous year, indicating that rising costs and falling product prices are still the main contradiction, which will be detrimental to profit growth

from the perspective of fixed asset investment, the growth rate has not only continued to fall sharply, but is now lower than that of the whole society and all manufacturing industries in the same period; Not only has the growth rate been very low, but it continues to decline. This not only shows that the heat of capacity expansion has cooled significantly, but also reflects the lack of confidence in the future expectations of machinery enterprises

financial expenses, accounts receivable and molding/automobile lightweight processing technology and equipment: stamping machines, injection molding equipment/molding technology, laser welding equipment inventory is improving

the growth rate of financial expenses and its interest expenses fell significantly, indicating that the financing environment of enterprises has improved, which is conducive to enterprises to control financial costs. Although the growth rate of accounts receivable is still higher than that of production and sales in the same period, it has stopped rising and stabilized; It shows that although it is still difficult to recover the payment for goods, the risk of excessive growth of accounts receivable is being controlled. Inventory growth, especially the growth of finished products, has fallen to a low level, indicating that "de Stocking" has achieved obvious results. This has created conditions for the boom to rebound in the future

so far this year, various types of experimental machine products have been widely used in chemical industry, petroleum, building materials, machinery, shipbuilding, transportation and other industrial manufacturing departments. At the same time, the economic environment will also appear in the laboratories of some universities and scientific research institutions, which is warmer than last year, but to a limited extent. It is expected that the economic operation speed of the machinery industry in 2013 is expected to achieve an increase of about 10 percentage points

self mutilation competition should arouse vigilance

due to the intensification of competition and the decline of benefits, several tendencies worthy of vigilance have emerged in the industry

first, excessive price competition. In order to reduce costs, they are willing to use their brains in materials and processes to substitute inferior goods for good ones, and implement a "marginal" policy in quality inspection standards. Even some well-known enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises have been willing to take risks

second, under the guidance of the idea of "better lose profits than lose the market", carry out irrational sales and earn money at a loss. It not only disrupted wars at home, but also engaged in vicious competition abroad. Not only did they not live well, but also disrupted the market order of the whole industry, making the enterprises in the industry lose their due reasonable profits and development momentum

third, the energy of enterprise leaders focuses on running the market and pressing costs, and they are unable to take quality management into account; The quality of products has declined and the brand reputation has been damaged. Some high-end product manufacturing enterprises that have made achievements in independent innovation and have already made successful achievements have frequent quality accidents when they get users' orders and put them into production again, which has shaken users' confidence in localization

fourth, unrealistically lower the supply price of supporting cooperative partner enterprises, so that suppliers lose reasonable profits, also lose the enthusiasm to keep improving and constantly improve the supply quality, and finally endanger themselves

fifth, excessive layoffs. Not only the reduction of ordinary front-line employees, but also a small number of enterprises and even technical backbones have been affected, and the long-term development future of enterprises is worrying. These tendencies are very dangerous. These short-sighted practices are very detrimental to the future of the enterprise, and also run counter to the efforts of the whole industry to "change from big to strong". Although this may solve a temporary problem, it is extremely detrimental to long-term sustainable development, which will certainly hurt the reputation and development momentum of the enterprise and worsen the development environment of the whole industry. In the end, it can only make the enterprise itself and the whole industry fall into greater difficulties

due to time, the strength has changed from big to strong

from the appearance, the decline of the machinery industry in the past two years is due to weak demand and overcapacity, but this is only the superficial reason; The deeper and more essential reason is that China's economic development stage has undergone profound changes, but the industry development has not changed with it

the market foundation supporting the rapid development of the Tenth Five Year Plan and the eleventh five year plan is mainly the huge demand of the blowout during the period of high-speed industrialization. It is the excessive demand that creates the "shortage" phenomenon in a specific period. In order to get the power generation equipment as soon as possible, the power plant had to take the "rush fee" to comfort the employees of the power generation equipment enterprise. Due to too many orders, machine tool enterprises delayed delivery for one or even two years; Excavator enterprises have to decide how many main machines to produce according to how many key parts they can import

in the seller's market, the main contradiction in the market is to solve whether there are problems, and whether the machinery enterprises as suppliers have sufficient production and supply capacity; And the demander is often hungry, unable to care about the quality and performance of the supplier's products

therefore, in the market environment at that time, the top priority for machinery enterprises was to improve production efficiency and batch production, and the main consideration was how to obtain greater economies of scale. In that atmosphere, extension expansion, continuous construction of new plants, reproduction production and general assembly lines have become a common choice in the industry

this development model has formed a huge inertia, thus laying the seeds of today's difficulties

after entering the "12th Five Year Plan", on the one hand, China's industrialization has entered the middle and late stage, and the blowout demand situation has returned to normalization; On the other hand, under the increasingly sharp pressure of resources and environment, the scientific concept of development is increasingly recognized from top to bottom, from the pursuit of speed and scale to quality and efficiency

in this context, the growth of total demand tends to be more rational. But at the same time, the ultra-high expansion of production capacity in the previous decade has reached the release period, and the supply capacity has increased significantly. Between this increase and decrease, the shortage economy has rapidly transformed into an increasingly serious surplus economy

under the surplus economic environment, a buyer's market will inevitably be formed, and the dominant power and discourse power will be transferred from machinery enterprises to users. Starting from their own interests, users are bound to put forward increasingly stringent requirements in terms of product performance, quality, price and whether the special requirements for their own use can be met. The main aspect of the contradiction is from solving "yes or no" to "good or bad"

therefore, today's machinery enterprises must study the feasibility study report of the construction scheme of 1million tons of alumina and supporting self provided thermal power stations, which has been completed by relevant professional institutes; According to the requirements of the users of the established design plan, the focus of the work will be shifted to focus on solving the quality and variety of products; From the pursuit of "scale efficiency" of mass transit products to the pursuit of "scarcity efficiency" of personalized high-quality products

now, everyone is thinking about ways to solve overcapacity. In this regard, I believe that we should not overestimate the role of administrative means, but use more invisible hands of the market

it has been more than two years since 2011, when the demand has slowed down and the growth rate has declined. Nevertheless, we still do not want to introduce short-term stimulus policies to speed up, because the "transformation and upgrading" will pass sooner or later. Although the short-term stimulus policy can speed up for a while, it only postpones the outbreak of the crisis. The root cause is still to rely on the market forcing mechanism under the order of fair competition to stimulate endogenous development vitality. Now that the forced mechanism has begun to work, we should continue to promote it

the government's main task is to regulate the market order and create a fair competition environment in which "the superior can win and the inferior can be eliminated". As long as we manage the market environment well, under the forced mechanism, a number of excellent enterprises will emerge and lead the upgrading of the whole industry

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